In recent governorship polls, the Edo people have shown through previous outcomes that the Edo electorates are sophisticated and highly enlightened; they have always voted based on issues rather than political sycophancy.
In the Labour Party, one of the main opposition parties in the state, about twenty aspirants have officially signified interest in contesting the governorship primaries of the party slated for February, with the bulk of the aspirants coming from the Edo central senatorial zone.
Not to demean or belittle the efforts of other aspirants within the Labour Party, the race to get the governorship ticket in the Labour Party is between two astute professionals with flashing credentials in law and finance.
Mr. Kingsley Ulinfun, former CEO of United Bank for Africa Tanzania Limited, and Mr. Olumide Akpata, former president of the Nigeria Bar Association NBA and cofounder of Templars, one of the biggest law firms in Nigeria.
These two candidates enjoy tremendous goodwill from members of the Labour Party in the state and, by extension, the Edo people.
They have gone around the local government areas in the state and met with party leaders and other supporters of the party.
Who will emerge as the aspirant of the party, and what factors may decide the fate of these two frontline candidates? These questions and more are dissected below.
OLUMIDE AKPATA
Olumide Akpata, a Nigerian legal practitioner and politician, served as the Head of Templars Law Firm’s Corporate and Commercial Practice Group before resigning in August 2023 to pursue partisan politics.
He became the first non-Senior Advocate of Nigeria in 28 years to emerge as NBA president and co-founded Templars Law Firm. Akpata joined the Labor Party in August 2023.
AKPATA’S STRENGTHS
Mr. Olumide Akpata is a thoroughbred professional and a trailblazer in law practice. His excellent law career started early, when he was in his early twenties.
The law firm he co-founded, Templars, is one of the biggest in Nigeria and, by extension, West Africa. Olu D, as his supporters affectionately call him, is very popular nationwide and enjoys the support of people outside the state who may not be too familiar with the politics of Edo State.
Having contested and won the NBA presidency against all odds in 2020, Mr. Akpata may also pull the same surprise on the day of the primaries.
Mr. Akpata’s large financial war chest may swing the votes in his favor, as the aspirant has been funding the party and servicing its leaders across the state.
The former NBA president is splashing his humongous wealth at top party executives, from the state executive committee down to the 192-ward structure of the party.
AKPATA’S WEAKNESSES
The majority of Labour Party members in Edo state suspect Mr. Olumide Akpata to be the candidate of Governor Godwin Obaseki, and this group of people believes the governor is the one funding his campaign.
At a point in time, there were unconfirmed reports that Mr. Akpata is a cousin of Governor Godwin Obaseki, and they keep in touch almost daily.
Interestingly, Mr. Akpata has neither denied nor confirmed some of these reports.
Similarly, Mr. Akpata’s flamboyant, money-laden campaign may be his own albatross, as most Labour Party members see him as a money bag who wants to hijack the party structure and procure the governorship ticket of the party no matter the cost.
Akpata’s adversaries are quick to remind the Labour Party faithful that the ticket of the party is not for sale.
Another factor that may end Akpata’s aspiration in 2024 is the politics of zoning that have characterized Edo politics.
There is this unwritten and unconventional power rotation policy among the three major tribes in Edo, consisting of Afemais domiciled in Edo North, Esans in Edo Central, and Benins in Edo South.
Since 1999 to date, the Afemais and Benins have produced all the legal governors and deputies in the state combined.
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When Governor Obaseki finishes his tenure in November 2024, the Benins (Edo South) will have had sixteen years as governor and eight years as deputy.
The Afemais (Edo North) will have had 8 years as governor and 16 years as deputy governor when incumbent Philip Shaibu completes his tenure in November.
Olumide Akpata is from Edo South, and the majority of Edo people want the Esans in Edo Central to produce the next occupant of the government house in 2024. Zoning aims to give minorities the opportunity to govern.
For instance, Edo South, since 1999, would have been in power for 16 years, constituting 67% of the time.
If the 2024 governorship ticket is given to someone from Edo South, where Mr. Akpata hails from, they would control it for 24 out of 32 years, making it 75%, Edo North 15%, and Edo Central 0%.
KINGSLEY ULINFUN
Kingsley Ulinfun, a seasoned finance expert and banker, has over 27 years of experience in blue-chip financial institutions.
He has held leadership roles in the banking sector, such as CEO of UBA Tanzania Limited, General Manager, and Head of Commercial Banking at Union Bank Nigeria, overseeing all the bank’s branches in Nigeria, and Oakwood Green Africa Limited as the group’s director of enterprise risk management.
Ulinfun’s expertise lies in managing diverse financing projects for state governments, corporate entities, and international projects.
ULINFUN’S STRENGTHS
Mr. Kingsley Ulinfun is one of the most experienced aspirants in the contest, with rich private sector experience in the African financial market.
He is seen as a bridge builder by many admirers between the organized private sector and government, having midwifed private sector funding for governments and businesses in Africa.
READ ALSO: Edo 2024: ‘I Have No Preferred Successor’, Obaseki Declares Neutrality
His supporters have also argued that with his vast network in the African financial market, he will be able to influence and attract funding to critical projects in the state.
Similarly, Ulinfun enjoys tremendous support from conservative members of the party, who have vowed not to monetize the governorship primaries in the state.
Mr. Ulinfun, with almost three decades of experience as a top business executive with nearly unmistakable records, is seen as the Peter Obi in the race, as he has vowed not to buy the votes of delegates on election day.
Interestingly, Ulinfun has also supported and funded the activities of the party since his declaration of interest in April.
Mr. Ulinfun has garnered a lot of public goodwill in recent times, as he has not minced words about the drastic changes he will bring to governance in Edo.
His boldness has endeared him to the hearts of the party faithful. In one of his visits to Owan East LP Executives, Ulinfun assured them of declaring a state of emergency on roads, canceling the recent alleged fraudulent local government elections organized by Governor Obaseki, and strengthening the state’s procurement process for efficient and accountable governance.
Also, a vast majority of residents in the state believe the Esan people in Edo Central should be given the opportunity to produce the governor in 2024 after being shut out of power since 1999. Kingsley Ulinfun hails from Edo Central; this factor may as well favor him if the zoning and rotation of power come into play in 2024, as he is seen as the most acceptable and sellable candidate from Edo Central.
ULINFUN’S WEAKNESSES
Many people believe he may not have the financial strength to match the APC and PDP during the general elections.
Another thing that may affect his aspiration is the many aspirants contesting the election, both in the Labor Party and other political parties in the state, from his senatorial zone.
WRITER’S TAKEAWAY
The Edo State 2024 contest may spring up surprises for followers outside the state. The politics of population geography will play a big part in who emerges as Governor Obaseki’s successor.
Edo South, with seven local governments, makes up 58% of the entire population of the state, followed by Edo North, with 24% with six local governments, and Edo Central, with 18% with five local governments.
Edo South has half of the total number of voters in the state. For example, in the last 2020 governirship elections, the combined votes of the two major political parties then, the PDP and APC, were as follows:
Edo South = 255,739
Edo North = 187,414
Edo Central = 95, 145
One can easily deduce that the numbers in the 2020 governorship election tally considerably with the population demographics quoted above.
Interestingly, just like the Ibos in Lagos State, non-commissioned reports have shown that Edo South has a large population of Esan people who reside there because of similarities in language, religion, and culture.
These reports have shown that out of the 58% of the population in Edo South, the Esans and other major tribes in Nigeria make up 20% of that population, and the majority of this population is rooting for an Esan governor come 2024.
This means that the effective population of the Esans is about 38%, and many believe that should it not be zoned to the Esans in Edo Central, this 38% will abandon the party, causing significant damage to the Labour Party.
Similarly, Edo North, the second-most populous zone, also seems to align with Edo Central this time around, as leaders of the party and even other parties have openly been canvassing for a power shift to the politically marginalized Esan-speaking people of Edo Central.
This political support is based on the fact that Edo North cannot wait for another 16 years for power to shift to the zone if the ticket is retained in Edo South.
Edo North’s support is based on the political understanding that, after Edo Central’s 8 years, the zone can strongly vie for the governorship seat with Edo South.
This means that the odds seem to be strongly in favor of the Esan Agenda, as most political actors glamouring a power shift to Edo Central will call it.
In the Labour Party, if the Esans are to bring a unified aspirant, it is generally accepted and agreed that of the most serious Esan contenders on the table, Mr. Kingsley Ulinfun is generally believed to be the most acceptable because he is more sellable, unblemished, and more marketable to other zones, especially Edo North, who will be seen as the tiebreaker.
Although other serious candidates like Dorry Okojie and Ken Imansuagbon (Riceman) exist, they seem to have so much political and governance baggage that projecting them by the Esans will be tough to sell.
Kingsley Ulinfun is seen as the aspirant to be put forward by the Esans because he is more politically positioned to get the ticket with his sterling and unblemished three decades of excellent private sector practice in Nigeria’s and Africa’s financial markets.
What this therefore means is that the battle for the Labour Party gubernatorial ticket for 2024 will be a straight battle between Olumide Akpata from Edo South (Bini) and Kingsley Ulinfun from Edo Central (Esan), and wherever the pendulum swings between these two aspirants will determine the chances of LP at the polls in September 2024. #Ulinfun
Written by Oshozekhai from Auchi, Edo State